(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
29.5N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO NAVAL BASE,
JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY
LARGE, APPROXIMATELY 1200NM DIAMETER, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A
290843Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LOW SITUATED OVER THE SURFACE REFLECTION. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKER SYSTEM WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TS 15W NEAR
WESTERN JAPAN. TS 15W WILL THEN LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN CHINA OVER THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS (SEE REF B
(WDPN35 PGTW 290900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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