(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING AREA ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT INDUCED
WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MODELS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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