JTWC及MFR兩大機構都已重新升格，12Z皆評價50節。

ZCZC 493
WTIO30 FMEE 181259 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  3  (BOUCHRA)
2.A POSITION 2018/11/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 83.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/19 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
NNNN

JTWC 17/22Z再度發布TCFA，目前分析已到T3.0。徘徊多日，終再次獲得升格

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 87.1E TO 13.9S 79.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 86.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 04S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 92.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 730 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 171542Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04S ARE
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE (26 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC
04S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

JTWC 19z再度評級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 04S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.7S 92.6E, APPROXIMATELY 309 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY OVERHEAD DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE WEST. A 151520Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW
LEVEL WRAPPING WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF 04S ARE IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (25 TO 30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
04S WITH TRACK SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

MFR昨天12Z已判定減弱為TD，之後將持續減弱為擾動區

ZCZC 092
WTIO30 FMEE 130012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20182019
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  3  (EX-BOUCHRA)
2.A POSITION 2018/11/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7 S / 89.4 E
(SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 90 NW: 370
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/13 12 UTC: 6.8 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2018/11/14 00 UTC: 7.3 S / 90.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
36H: 2018/11/14 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
48H: 2018/11/15 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
60H: 2018/11/15 12 UTC: 8.6 S / 90.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
72H: 2018/11/16 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/17 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
120H: 2018/11/18 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, ZONE OF
NNNN

JTWC 06Z發FW

18Z已命名Bouchra。

WTIO30 FMEE 101947

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4 S / 89.5 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 5.1 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 91.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 92.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/14 18 UTC: 7.7 S / 94.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/15 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN ORGANISATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND SPECIALLY SINCE THE END OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,WITH A STAEDY IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE EVENING. TONIGHT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT (10 MIN WINDS) (CI FROM 2.5 TO 3.0). OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT AND A SMAP PASS AROUND 12Z SHOW MAX WINDS AT 40 KT (WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN CONTA-MINATION). BASED ON ALL OF THIS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT (LIKELY REACHED SINCE 12Z) AND THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED BY THE MAURITIUS NWSAT18Z.

THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A RATHER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH A POTENTIAL WEAKENING TREND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITHIN A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

AFTER AN INITIAL EASTWARDS DRIFT SINCE YESTERDAY THAT MOVED THE SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF OUR AOR, THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED BACK AND RE-ENTER IN OUR AOR THIS EVENING. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (EASTERLY FLOW) AND THE DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES GENERATED BY AN EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN ONE AFTER 24 TO 36H AND MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

04S FOUR
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 10, 2018:
Location: 5.5°S 90.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

熱帶氣旋形成警報WTXS21
於10 / 0230Z發布
TCFA文本
WTXS21 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 4.9S 91.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A
091931Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. A 092302Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SMALL GROUPING OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENIRONMENT WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
10 TO 20 KNOT VWS, AND 26 TO 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, BUT ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//NNNN

JTWC 17Z再度評級LOW，對流消長。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 85.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4S 85.3E, APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT 061508Z ASCAT METOP-A PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A SMALL SWATH OF
15 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A 061302Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MIRCROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE LLC HAS
DISSIPATED AND THE STRUCTURE HAS LARGELY FALLEN APART. THE SYSTEM IS
SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON
INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. NAVGEM IS BRINGING IT
SOUTHWARD AND ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM. WHILE MOST OF
THE OTHER MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.