JTWC 18Z發出FW |
JTWC 18Z近岸評價75節,中心已登陸。 |
即將登陸印度 |
打轉了一小圈,持續向西移動,兩天後橫越印度,JTWC目前看好在阿拉伯海重新發展。 |
命名GAJA 同時CWB也定為TC FKIN20 DEMS 110315 TC ADVISORY TCAC: NEW DELHI DTG: 20181111/0000Z TC: GAJA NR: 3 PSN: N1324 E08918 MOV: WNW05KT C: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 35KT FCST PSN+06HR: 11/0600Z N1336 E08842 FCST MAX WIND+06HR: 40KT FCST PSN+12HR: 11/1200Z N1348 E08812 FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 40KT FCST PSN+18HR: 11/1800Z N1400 E08742 FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 45KT FCST PSN+24HR: 12/0000Z N1412 E08718 FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 45KT RMK: NIL NXT MSG: 20181111/0900Z TOO: 110836 HRS IST |
本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2018-11-11 06:39 編輯 07B SEVEN As of 18:00 UTC Nov 10, 2018: Location: 13.1°N 89.4°E Maximum Winds: 35 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb 熱帶氣旋07B(七)警告#01 發佈於10 / 2100Z TC警告文字 WTIO31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100251NOV2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 89.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 89.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.6N 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.1N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.4N 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.5N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.3N 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.8N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.1N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 89.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE WILL SHIFT TO AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. ONCE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS, THE TRACK DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ALONG TRACK SPEED INCREASES. AFTER TAU 48, GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIA PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, HAVE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE PRIMARY OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM WITH A SOLUTION THAT HAS THE SYSTEM TRACK MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 100300).//NNNN https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/io0718.tcw WTIO51 PGTW 102100 WARNING ATCG MIL 07B NIO 181110203347 2018111018 07B SEVEN 001 01 290 11 SATL 040 T000 131N 0894E 035 R034 055 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD T012 136N 0885E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD T024 141N 0876E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD T036 144N 0868E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD T048 145N 0860E 060 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD T072 143N 0843E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD T096 138N 0820E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD T120 131N 0794E 025 AMP 096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 89.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 89.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.6N 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.1N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.4N 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.5N 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.3N 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 13.8N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.1N 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 89.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. // 0718110606 78N1047E 15 0718110612 78N1041E 15 0718110618 79N1034E 15 0718110700 80N1027E 15 0718110706 79N1022E 15 0718110712 80N1018E 15 0718110718 78N1014E 20 0718110800 83N1007E 20 0718110806 89N1000E 20 0718110812 98N 993E 20 0718110818 102N 981E 20 0718110900 102N 965E 20 0718110906 106N 955E 25 0718110912 110N 945E 25 0718110918 116N 931E 25 0718111000 120N 924E 25 0718111006 123N 915E 25 0718111012 127N 905E 30 0718111018 131N 894E 35 NNNN https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/io0718fix.txt TPIO10 PGTW 102055 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (W OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS) B. 10/2030Z C. 13.18N D. 88.81E E. FIVE/HMWRI8 F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 2.5 DT. MET/PT 2.5. DBO DT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE DAVIS |
IMD下午已編BOB 09,晚上升格深低壓,上望SCS。 |
熱帶氣旋形成警報WTIO22 於10 / 0300Z發布 TCFA文本 WTIO22 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 93.2E TO 13.0N 88.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 92.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 101.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BROAD AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 091926 AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ AND 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110300Z.//NNNN |