BoM預測即將降格,JTWC/SSDT值亦已經降至2.0

TPXS11 PGTW 151514

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA)

B. 15/1430Z

C. 21.12S

D. 105.52E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 69NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.0 MET 2.5 PT 2.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1208Z  20.52S  105.42E  SSMS


   STIGSSON

TXXS21 KNES 151455
TCSSIO
CCA

A.  07S (CLAUDIA)

B.  15/1130Z

C.  20.6S

D.  105.6E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T2.0/3.0/W1.5/12HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND DT BASED ON 1208Z SSMIS WHICH
SHOWED THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER WEST. SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY
DEFINED CLOUD LINES AROUND A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    15/0847Z 20.0S 106.1E SSMI


...CLARK

JTWC判定此系統於13/18Z時達巔峰,達C2,85KT

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 112.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 112.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 18.3S 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 19.2S 108.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 20.2S 106.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.1S 105.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 22.7S 103.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 22.9S 102.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 111.7E.
13JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC
07S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM AN
1809Z AMSR2 36GHZ  MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF A 131740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
77 KNOTS, MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW, AND A 131055Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 87
KNOTS. TC 07S REMAINS IN A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE (25-30 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR IS
OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR AND STORM MOTION ARE IN-PHASE. THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR TC 07S IS DIMINISHING AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS LIMITED AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-
28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 07S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS STR WILL ACT AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72. THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEADILY COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC
07S. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72 AT WHICH
POINT IT WILL BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
SECONDARY STR, WHICH BECOMES THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM'S MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION, THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A MODEL
SPREAD OF 150 NM. THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME VARIATION
IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THUS, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AT TAU 96.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED EQUATORWARD OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

BoM12/18Z升格澳式C3,定強65節;同一時間JTWC亦升格其為C1,定強70節

07S CLAUDIA 200112 1800 15.7S 118.7E SHEM 70 978

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia, Category 3 is expected to strengthen further during Monday and remain well offshore from mainland WA.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.7 degrees South, 118.9 degrees East , 435 kilometres northwest of Broome and 515 kilometres north of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour .
Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia continues to move over open waters to the northwest of the Kimberley. Claudia is expected to strengthen further during Monday and continue to track towards the west southwest and remain over open waters, well north of the Pilbara on Monday and Tuesday.

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Monday

BoM升格03U澳式C1,命名Claudia,預測巔峰將達澳式C3

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Claudia has formed offshore to the northeast of Kalumburu. It is expected intensify further during Sunday but remain over open water north of the Kimberley.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Kalumburu and Derby.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: Wyndham to Kalumburu.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Claudia at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South, 125.9 degrees East , 145 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 295 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour .
Tropcical Cyclone Claudia has formed off the north Kimberley coast. The system is expected to strengthen further and pass to the north and then to the northwest of the Kimberley on Sunday before continuing on a generally west to southwest track well north of the Pilbara early next week.

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday

JTWC11/1200Z升格07S,將逐漸往西南方向移動,巔峰上看80KT

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110700ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 126.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 126.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 13.8S 124.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 14.8S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 16.0S 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 17.1S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 19.0S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 20.8S 107.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 22.1S 105.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 125.7E.
11JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING UNDER FLARING,
DEEP CONVECTION WHICH OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND IS BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL TURNING IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH
AN EXTRAPOLATION OF AN 110849Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LLCC. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN 111259Z BULLSEYE
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 35 KT
WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES. TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN AREA OF HIGH
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, CURRENTLY LESSENING THE UNFAVORABLE
SHEAR EFFECT AND CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S IS
ACTING AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE, TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES TO A PEAK
OF 80 KTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER THAT, COOLING SST AND DECREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CAUSE TC 07S TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO ONLY 112 NM OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
TAU 72. THIS LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND
121500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 110300 COR).//
NNNN

中心已自達爾文附近海岸出海。JTWC於10/03Z再度發布TCFA。

WTXS21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 131.9E TO 12.6S 124.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 130.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 47
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A 100020Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY STRONG AT 20-25 KTS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN PHASE WITH
STORM MOTION AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE. COMBINED WITH
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE OVERALL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
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由於系統中心已暫時進入澳洲陸地,JTWC09/0630Z調降評級為Medium

WTXS21 PGTW 090630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080551ZJAN20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 080600). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 135.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED OVERLAND WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH. A 090040Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A SEVERAL AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTLINE. A 090041Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A SMALL SWATH OF 30-KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
92S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION
FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EMERGING BACK OVER WATER IN THE TIMOR SEA,
AT WHICH POINT IT MAY INTENSIFY TO WARNING THRESHOLD.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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