FMS判定17/21Z升格為澳式三級強烈熱帶氣旋(C3)，定強65kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 172234 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S
176.6W AT 172100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.  

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 85 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 330 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT  
                    
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT  
                          
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT  
                    
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION GOOD WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SYSTEM STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEP
LAYER MEAN. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 400HPA. SST IS AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN YIELDING A
DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180900 UTC 21.6S 174.1W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 182100 UTC 24.9S 171.3W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190900 UTC 29.3S 168.0W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 192100 UTC 34.1S 165.5W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180200UTC.

風眼眼牆於17/06Z後已觸及斐濟瓦努阿島，預測巔峰上看澳式C2。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 170822 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 179.3E AT
170600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 IR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 171200UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER.  

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.3S 178.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.8S 175.9W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 23.6S 173.3W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 27.4S 169.9W MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171400UTC.

JTWC 16/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 08P首報，定強40kts。

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152051ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (TINO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 177.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 177.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 16.0S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.3S 177.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.7S 175.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.4S 173.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 30.6S 165.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 178.3E.
16JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (TINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. EIR ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A 161714Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE BUT CLEARLY
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW
WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER AND NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES OF 29C
REMAIN FAVORABLE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A RELATIVELY SIMPLE STEERING PATTERN WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 WITH A 40-45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 145NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C) AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, SST VALUES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
(20C) AND VWS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LEVELS (30-40 KNOTS), WHICH
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 08P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72
AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET STREAM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152100).//
NNNN

FMS判定16/15Z升格為澳式一級熱帶氣旋，命名Tino，逐漸逼近斐濟。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 161653 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TINO CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 177.1E AT
161500 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.  
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM STEERED
TOWARDS THE EAST BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND OF ABOUT 0.6/0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170300 UTC 16.1S 179.4E MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171500 UTC 18.7S 178.4W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180300 UTC 21.4S 176.1W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181500 UTC 24.2S 173.3W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TINO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
162000UTC.