ZCZC 849
WTIO30 FMEE 250107 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)
2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
NNNN
JTWC亦將之升格為Tropical Cyclone 11S，並於24/21Z發出首報。
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.5S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.8S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.1S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 29.1S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.9S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 71.2E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
764 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIMELY 241648Z ASCAT-A IMAGE THAT REVEALS
35-40 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER. TC 11S IS
TRANSITING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTABLISHED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXPERIENCES HIGHER VWS IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE TO > 40KTS AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH COOLER (<25C) SST BY TAU 72 WILL
CAUSE TC 11S TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE PERIPERY OF TC 10S TO
THE NORTHWEST (SEPARATION DISTANCE WILL BE ABOUT 543NM AT TAU 72 AND
320NM BY TAU 96). THIS INTERACTION, ALONG WITH FORCING BY RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE A SHARP RECURVE TO THE WEST. INCREASED VWS,
LOWER SST AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH AND
INTERACTION WITH 10S WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(DIANE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9S 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220619Z METOP-B ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOW AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 97S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 97S MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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