開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

17P.Vicky 實測獲得命名 短暫發展

查看數: 7001 評論數: 3 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2020-2-20 08:03

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2020-2-21 16:39 編輯   一級熱帶氣旋   編號:09 F ( 17 P ) 名稱:Vicky   基本資料   擾動編號日期:2020 年 02 月 20 日 07 時 JTWC升 ...

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2020-2-21 06:43
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-21 21:55 編輯

FMS20/2316Z判定升格澳式C1,命名Vicky
JTWC20/1800Z升格TC17P,定強45KT,20/2300Z發出首報
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 202316 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 171.1W AT 202230 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
WRAPPING ONTO THE LLCC. OGANISATION IMPROVED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE
IT SOUTHEASTWARDS INITIALLY AND SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211030 UTC 16.2S 170.2W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212230 UTC 17.3S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221030 UTC 18.0S 169.4W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222230 UTC 18.6S 169.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 210200 UTC.

073608g56umv1167x7up59.gif

17P SEVENTEEN 200220 1800 14.3S 171.5W SHEM 45 997
WTPS31 PGTW 202300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200351ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 171.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 171.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 16.0S 170.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 17.6S 170.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 18.6S 170.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 171.2W.
20FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
47 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS A LATE CYCLE 201800Z WARNING BEING ISSUED
AT 202300Z. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE SPCZ HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED WESTERN SAMOA INDICATED 30
KNOTS, AND OBSERVATIONS AT MAOTA AND FALEOLO AIRPORTS SUPPORTED THIS ESTIMATE.
ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z RANGED FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25-30 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, A  201937Z OBSERVATION FROM PAGO PAGO FOUND 40 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.  THE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS LIKELY UNDER-REPRESENTING THE ACTUAL PEAK
INTENSITY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TC 17P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
PERSISTENT TROUGH AND IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AT TAU 12, BECOMING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AS THE TRACK BEGINS TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, TC 17P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST, WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36. INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A 184 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 INCREASING TO 295 NM AT
TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, SOME NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT 17P INTERACTING WITH 96P
AFTER TAU 48. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM INTERACTION AND HIGH DEGREE OF
SPREAD YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 202300Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190400).//
NNNN

075544u4108nu01404dm0n.gif
20200220.2200.himawari-8.vis.17P.SEVENTEEN.45kts.997mb.14.3S.171.5W.100pc.jpg 20200220.1815.f17.ir.olsircomp.97P.INVEST.x.jpg
20200220.2222.goes15.x.ir1km.17PSEVENTEEN.40kts-999mb-143S-1715W.098pc.jpg

點評

對了,不知道你前幾天的低溫競猜特地抄我的答案,成果令你滿意否?  發表於 2020-2-22 18:46
嗯,好喔,真棒,希望您永遠不會有打錯字的時候,呵呵~  發表於 2020-2-22 02:38
不是FMS命名嗎??還是沒把FMS放在眼裡  發表於 2020-2-21 19:10

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表