IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0107 UTC 25/02/2020
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 117.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 25/0600: 15.6S 117.1E: 030 [060]: 065 [120]: 975
+12: 25/1200: 15.7S 116.8E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 971
+18: 25/1800: 15.8S 116.4E: 055 [105]: 075 [140]: 967
+24: 26/0000: 15.9S 116.0E: 070 [130]: 085 [155]: 959
+36: 26/1200: 16.2S 115.3E: 090 [165]: 075 [140]: 967
+48: 27/0000: 16.4S 114.7E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 983
+60: 27/1200: 16.7S 114.3E: 130 [235]: 040 [075]: 992
+72: 28/0000: 16.8S 113.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 998
+96: 29/0000: 16.3S 112.3E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1001
+120: 01/0000: 15.4S 110.3E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located by EIR and recent MW imagery, well
to the north of the Australian mainland.
An eye started to emerge on EIR from around 1800 UTC but has fluctuated in
appearance. Microwave imagery showed a pin hole eye with deep convection not
quite wrapping fully around the centre.
Dvorak: Eye pattern with DTs ranging from 4.0 to 5.0. TIme averaged DT is 4.5.
Trend is D+ with MET/PAT of 4.0. CIMSS ADT had a CI of 4.3 and NOAA ADT was 3.8.
SATCON had 70 knots [adj 10min] at 2252 UTC. Intensity set to 65 knots [10 min
averaged winds].
The environmental conditions for the next 24 to 30 hours are favourable for
development. SSTs are around 30C, there is abundant moisture at low to mid
levels although there is peripheral dry air. Shear is low to moderate about
10-15 knots [E/NE] and there is strong upper level outflow evident in satellite
imagery and CIMSS upper level winds.
Model guidance is consistent with the development of a very small system and due
to being small, rapid intensification is a strong possibility especially in the
diurnally favourable overnight periods [as has occurred most recently]. The
forecast track has intensification to Wednesday, then an expected weakening
trend from later on Wednesday due to increasing shear, the effects of dry air
and the potential interaction with 07U [moving west across the NT/Kimberley].
Ferdinand is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Thursday
or Friday.
The weak mid-level ridge to the southeast is expected to steer the system slowly
towards the west southwest over open waters over the next few days. The ridge is
expected to persist as a broad cut-off mid-latitude low and upper trough remain
near stationary off the west coast of WA.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.4S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.7S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.0S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.2S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.2S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 118.6E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE EAST. A 231757Z ATMS 88 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF TC 20S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND
KNES BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, TC 20S HAS A GOOD MOISTURE
SIGNATURE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS SERVING AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SMALL SYSTEM, THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THIS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
70 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER THAT, DECREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 (SPREAD OF 40 NM), BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH AN INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A TRACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE MAJORITY AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THUS, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231000Z).//
NNNN
IDW23100
40:2:2:24:14S118E400:11:00
SECURITE
OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0057UTC 24 FEBRUARY 2020
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal eight east (117.8E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 0000 UTC 25
February.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 24 February
with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 24 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.2 south 117.4 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.
At 0000 UTC 25 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.6 south 117.0 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 24 February 2020.
WTXS21 PGTW 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230322ZFEB20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 119.5E TO 14.0S 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 119.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY
380 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230818Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING
TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST. A 230151Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
TIGHT, SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LYING UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL
TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
組圖打開中，請稍候......