紐西蘭氣象局判定16/18Z已轉化為溫帶氣旋。

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 1857 UTC 16-Mar-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Ex-tropical cyclone GRETEL was located near 31.2S 178.4E at 161800
UTC this morning (7am Tuesday New Zealand time), or about 550
kilometres northeast of Northland, moving southeast.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC WED 18-MAR-2020
The convection associated with Ex-TC Gretel dissipated early this
morning, over the relatively cool seas to the northeast of New
Zealand. Hence the system is no longer a tropical cyclone and has
been reclassified as an extratropical low. Ex-TC Gretel is expected
to move southeast over waters to the north and east of New Zealand
over the next few days, while remaining a deep extratropical low.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT 21-MAR-2020
No tropical cyclones are expected.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Wed 18-Mar-2020

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2020

JTWC16/03Z報發布Final Warning,定強50KT,將持續往東南方向移動,逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋

WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 26.6S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 29.3S 174.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 170.8E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 25 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYSTEM WITH FRONTAL
SIGNATURES STARTING TO BECOME EVIDENT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS POORLY DEFINED IN THE MSI. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
152136Z ASCAT-B PASS AND THE MSI IMAGERY WERE USED TO IDENTIFY THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED POCKETS OF 45-
50 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE JET IS PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (25-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AT 27-28 CELSIUS, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE. BASED ON THE MSI AND UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, TC 23P IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF EXTENSIVE RIDGING,
CENTERED NEAR 20S, 160W AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE CURRENT TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND TC 23P WILL
COMPLETE ETT, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 32 FEET.//
NNNN

JTWC 15/18Z定強50kts；FMS同一時間定強55kts，並發出最終報，其後將由紐西蘭氣象局接續發報。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 151939 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GRETEL CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.0S 168.1E AT 151800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 28 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 160000UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DECREASED OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH DRY AIR
ENTERING INTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GRETEL IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHWEST PERIPRHERY OF A NEAR
EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 27.5S 172.1E MOV SE AT 24 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 30.0S 176.1E MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 31.4S 179.2 MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 33.1S 174.2E MOV ESE AT 22 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GRETEL.

FMS判定15/12Z亦升至澳式C2，定強50kts。預測向東南快速移動，朝紐西蘭北方海域接近。

STORM WARNING 007  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 151421 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GRETEL CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 165.6E
AT 151200UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.
EXPECT SUSTAINED CLOCKWISE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 151800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.6S 167.4E AT 151800UTC
              AND NEAR 26.2S 169.5E AT 16000UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTER ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 979 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.

BoM判定15/03Z已增強至澳式C2，並將交由FMS接續發報。

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 1:36 pm EST on Sunday 15 March 2020

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Gretel, a category 2 cyclone continues to move southeast towards Norfolk Island.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Norfolk Island.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Gretel at 2:00 pm NFT:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 20.9 degrees South 162.3 degrees East, estimated to be 1070 kilometres north northwest of Norfolk Island and 455 kilometres west northwest of Noumea.

Movement: southeast at 40 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Gretel is continuing to move southeastwards while intensifying.

The cyclone is likely to pass to the northeast of Norfolk Island during Monday. By this time, the cyclone may lose some of its tropical characteristics, but it is expected to maintain an intensity equivalent to a category 2 tropical cyclone.

Hazards:
DAMAGING WINDS, with sustained winds in excess of 60-70 km/h and peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are likely to develop about Norfolk Island during Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with sustained winds in excess of 90 km/h and peak gusts above 125 km/h are possible over the island on Monday if the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

DAMAGING SURF CONDITIONS, with waves exceeding 5 metres in the surf zone, are likely to produce significant beach erosion.

Recommended Action:
The Community and Visitors to Norfolk Island should continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using daylight hours before nightfall.

- Stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed locations.

- Check your property for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.

- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall.

- Don't walk, ride your bicycle or drive through flood water, and keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

- Information is available from Emergency Management Norfolk Island (+6723 000) or the Norfolk Island Police Force (+6723 22222).

- For emergency assistance call Emergency Management Norfolk Island on +6723 000 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm NFT Sunday 15 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Norfolk Island Emergency Services would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly. This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand. Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs

This advice is for land-based communities, marine warnings will be issued from New Zealand.

Norfolk Island Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Daylight Time = UTC + 11hrs
Australian Eastern Standard Time = UTC + 10hrs

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.6S 163.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.9S 166.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 28.1S 170.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 30.5S 174.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 32.5S 177.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 160.8E.
14MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
393 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE 300-400 NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, PLACED BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM BANDING FEATURES IN A
141649Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS POSITION SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE CDO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
141140Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWING A REGION OF 40 KTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
A BROAD LLCC. THIS INTENSITY FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC 23P IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 23P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
STRONG VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH,
AND THE ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. WITH
100NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 141500).//
NNNN

BoM14/15Z報升格澳式C1,命名Gretel

FKAU05 ADRM 141524
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20200314/1500Z
TCAC:                DARWIN
TC:                  GRETEL
ADVISORY NR:         2020/5
OBS PSN:             14/1500Z S1812 E15842
CB:                  WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV:                 ESE 19KT
C:                   992HPA
MAX WIND:            35KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       14/2100 S1930 E15954
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  40KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      15/0300 S2048 E16118
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      15/0900 S2224 E16300
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR:      15/1500 S2406 E16442
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20200314/1900Z