JTWC30/0600Z取消評級

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZAPR2020-010600ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ＥＣ不支持發展，ＧＦＳ這報是菲東北上
整體來說，還在變動中，不太穩定，繼續觀望囉！

強度和路徑都有很大變數

JTWC28/0100Z將其評級為Low

ABPW10 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280100Z-280600ZAPR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA) :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N
135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271858Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA BY TAU 72. FURTHERMORE, THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
94W TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THIS
MODEL RUN THERE WAS SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN PREDICTED TRACKS FOR THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. : SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST) :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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