BoM 06Z接續發報，編號17U。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 22/05/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mangga
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 94.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/1200: 12.7S  95.1E:     085 [155]:  040  [075]:  995
+12:  22/1800: 14.0S  96.3E:     095 [180]:  040  [075]:  996
+18:  23/0000: 15.5S  97.8E:     110 [200]:  040  [075]:  996
+24:  23/0600: 17.1S  99.7E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  996
+36:  23/1800: 20.1S 104.6E:     140 [255]:  040  [075]:  994
+48:  24/0600:             :              :            :     
+60:  24/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  25/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  26/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 27/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mangga remains a weak system. An ASCAT pass at 0252Z showed a
large area of weak winds near the system centre, which remains elongated, and a
band of near gales in the northeast quadrant. Gales are expected to redevelop
when the convection reinvigorates.

The position confidence is fair and is based on the ASCAT pass and animated VIS
imagery, and is consistent with previous track forecasts.

This system has not been amenable to Dvorak analysis and is not likely to
develop into a classical tropical cyclone pattern by Dvorak standards,

CIMSS shear analysis indicates shear has decreased to around 7-8 knots, which is
consistent with the appearance on satellite. Ocean heat content is high and the
convection is being assisted by strong upper level poleward outflow and an
equatorial westerly wind burst at low levels. There is a window of opportunity
for some limited development in the next 12-18 hours as the circulation moves
through the area of lower wind shear. Thereafter it will experience higher shear
and lower ocean heat content that will limit the potential for barotropic
intensification.

During Saturday the circulation will increasingly feel the effects of an
approaching upper level trough to the southwest. Following some initial
weakening, the circulation is likely to be transformed into a non-tropical
[baroclinic] system as it interacts with a cold front to become a complex
weather system along the west coast of Western Australia.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.