JMA06Z判定已消散，JTWC0930Z亦撤銷評級

ABPW10 PGTW 150930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150930Z-160600ZJUL2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.9N 122.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

系統昨日凌晨登陸的應該是恆春半島吧，熱低壓特報也取消得太快了吧，看不到上一報了。
登陸時間應該是0130

JTWC15/06Z降評Low

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUL2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 120.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 82
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 150111Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED
AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. INVEST 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRAIGHT LINE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 99W IS EMBEDDED IN AN  
EXTENSIVE REGION OF 15-20KT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS MARGINAL STATE AT
BEST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD
OKINAWA BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY TRACKS UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTING OVER OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

暴雨阻視線 小黃衝台中港4死
台中港凌晨驚傳計程車墜海意外，一部載著4名工作船船員返回港區的計程車，疑似因為午夜時突然狂風暴雨影響能見度，在行經台中港北提信號台附近時，不慎墜入台中港內。

車內唯一破窗逃生的李姓民眾脫困游上岸後報案，港務消防隊緊急動員前往。凌晨3點40分尋獲車輛時，車內包含司機有3人死亡，另有一名同樣脫困的民眾原本下落不明，後來在外海被找到已是一具冰冷的遺體，這起意外總共造成4死。

中央氣象局：普通低壓
熱帶性低氣壓強度只維持二十四小時

天篷大元帥 發表於 2020-7-14 19:35
引用香港天文台

在中央氣象局升格同時，香港卻降格，兩個氣象機構對於強度變化的判定有落差。 ...

香港天文台降格低壓區決定正確，降格時系統LLCC完全外露，深層對流切離至南海，入夜後更快速消散（掃衞星雲圖吧，不懂upload 動態），結構大不如前，基本上系統進入巴士海峽後就裸跑，無結構可言，加上巴士海峽的垂直風切變大增，根本沒可能在巴士海峽增強，系統在橫過巴士海峽明顯減弱，所以天文台降格決定正確，中央氣象局升格不合理。
另外，系統在菲東海域時，風場一度掃出25knots，反映系統當時一度達熱帶性低氣壓強度，今天在巴士海峽僅掃出20knots，僅為低壓區；風力最大5級（前面應該有貼）。風場支持天交台決定，並指出系統是減弱中，並非如中央氣象局所指的增強。
明顯，中央氣象局一開始沒打算升格，賭系統東面近海通過的風力弱，但系統偏西了點，全部都買在高雄至恆春一帶登陸，氣象局如意算盤打不響，又怕99W登陸時中心附近有6級風，難解釋，於是才升格。明顯非兩個機構有落差吧，只是氣象局有另類考慮。

引用香港天文台

名稱:  低壓區
日期:  2020 年 7 月 14 日        香港時間:  08 時
位置:  北緯 20.5 度, 東經 121.2 度 (即香港之 東南偏東 約 760 公里)
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 40 公里

位於呂宋海峽的熱帶低氣壓已減弱為低壓區。

在中央氣象局升格同時，香港卻降格，兩個氣象機構對於強度變化的判定有落差。