Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).
A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).
A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven
NNNN
機器翻譯(翻譯粗劣 僅參考)：
ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Isaias熱帶氣旋更新
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon 2020年8月3日
多普勒雷達圖像和地面觀測表明，
Isaias颶風的眼睛在
美國東部時間1110 PM EDT 降落在北卡羅來納州南部（0310 UTC ）在大洋島海灘附近，最大
持續風速為85英里/小時（140公里/小時）。
BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Folly Beach has been
discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Folly Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and
southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the
next few hours. The center will then move inland across eastern
North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.
Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to ear
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening
is possible before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening
is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and
moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (96 km/h), and sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been reported along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and
Georgetown.
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and buoy data is 988
mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 988.9 mb (29.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Folly Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Savannah River to Folly Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.
Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:
Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.
Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.
Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become
a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850
mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of
these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further
strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing
southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast
is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after
that time.
There are no changes to the previous track forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central
and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane
Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track
shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may
begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning
late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020
Observations from recent scatterometer passes over the system show
that it now has a sufficiently well-defined center to be
designated as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is
estimated to be 45 kt, but these winds are currently occurring over
the Atlantic waters well to the north and northeast of the center.
Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday
some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since
Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not
be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small
radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the
north of Hispaniola may occur. Later in the forecast period some
strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by
southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days. The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus but
well below the latest LGEM guidance.
The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south
of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty
in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt. Isaias should move on
a west-northwestward to northwestward track on the southern and
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge. In 2-3 days,
the system is expected to turn north-northwestward due to a
weakness in the ridge and an approaching trough. Later in the
forecast period, the trough should cause Isaias to turn toward the
northeast. The official track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and a little west of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus tracks. It should be noted that further
adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially
after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.
Key Messages:
1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the southeastern
Bahamas.
2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight and will spread
westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos and the Central Bahamas
on Thursday and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for
these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.
3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to
portions of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida later this
week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or
magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next
few days.
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