FNMOC撤編後，NHC再度對其恢復展望，並預測在5日內有10%機會成旋

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms located 930 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii is forecast to linger in that area for the next few
days. The showers and thunderstorms are the remnants of Tropical
Depression Ten-E.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development, and regeneration of this system is not
anticipated.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

FNMOC 19/07Z再度撤編！

FNMOC已復編，NHC展望10%，即將進入中太。

1. A small area of showers and thunderstorms over the far southwestern
portion of the basin are associated with the remnant low of Tropical
Depression Ten-E.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development, and regeneration of this system is not
anticipated while it moves slowly westward toward the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

NHC 再次看好增強至TS

017
WTPZ45 KNHC 141432
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small
ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity
fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not
indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of
the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS
now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of
those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated
satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong
northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development
potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less
hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast
was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and
to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period,
though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said,
there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a
remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which
case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur.

No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The
depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the
ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a
little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift
is expected through early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NHC 升格 TD-10E，短暫發展

WTPZ45 KNHC 130839
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual
increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT
overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become
well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt
peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It
should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35
kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and
these are presumed to be rain-contaminated.

The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive
environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period.
Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm
waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next
several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter
some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official
forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no
change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most
of the intensity guidance.

The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the
north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly
westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in
decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow
appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to
move very slowly during the 3-5 day period.  Once the steering flow
becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone
northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless
of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone
will move very little during that time. The official forecast track
splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and
closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the
5-day forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto