CWB判定於12Z變性為溫帶氣旋

二、編號第２００８號（國際命名ＢＡＶＩ，中文譯名：巴威），已於今(２７)日２０時變性為溫帶氣旋，中心氣壓９９６百帕，２７日２０時的中心位置在北緯４３．８度，東經１２５．６度，即在首爾北方７４０公里之處（臺北北方２１２０公里之處），以每小時２０公里速度，向東北東移動。

JTWC09Z發布Final Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024   
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 41.6N 125.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 125.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 45.1N 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 42.5N 126.5E.
27AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MSI AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAINLAND
CHINA AND INDICATES THAT A RAPID WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE,
LARGELY DUE TO THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVER LAND PASSAGE. THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT IT IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 12. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL NATURE OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL REMAIN STRONG, WITH 30 KTS AT TAU 12 ONLY
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH AEMN AND AFUM THE SOLE OUTLIERS WHICH BRING THE
REMINANTS OF THE CIRCULATION WESTWARD. DESPITE THESE OUTLIERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

2020年08月27日14時

中心位置在北緯 41.8 度，東經 125.1 度
過去移動方向 北
過去移動時速 54公里
中心氣壓 992百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

北北東 時速 41 公里
預測 08月28日02時
中心位置在北緯 45.7 度，東經 128.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
70%機率半徑 60 公里
預測 12 小時變性為溫帶氣旋

曾文真的得趁這兩三天多補了
EC和GFS都預測接下來系統北上接力然後9月上旬就可以把地面東北風扯下來了
留給西南風的時間真的不多了

JMA:已轉化為温帶低氣壓

温帯低気圧
令和02年08月27日15時40分 発表

<27日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
温帯低気圧
存在地域        中国東北区
中心位置        北緯 42度00分(42.0度)
東経 125度00分(125.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 45km/h(25kt)
中心気圧        992hPa

中國認定在8點半才登陸平安北道

WTPQ20 BABJ 270100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY BAVI 2008 (2008) INITIAL TIME 270100 UTC
00HR 39.8N 124.8E 975HPA 33M/S
MOVE NNE 50KM/H=

KMA:已經登陸朝鮮

WTKO20 RKSL 262100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 262100UTC 38.2N 125.1E
MOVEMENT N 24KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT

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