ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZSEP2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) [此處應為是JTWC筆誤，事實上為91S] PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7S 80.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7S
80.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. A 030337Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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