JTWC Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91B IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LIMITED
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH LANDFALL NEAR 130000Z; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

IMD:BOB 02