JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 67.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JTWC1800Z降評Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 74.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED. A 171228Z SSMIS
91GHZ SATELLITE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 92A IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

(雖然雲圖畫質有點差,但也沒其他新圖了,只能將就點用)

LLCC持續裸露，92A將來路徑上的風切將成為抑制其發展的最大阻礙

IMD:ARB 03

LLCC即將出海,JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 94
NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A 151336Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT 92A INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER THE
FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N
75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 92A QUICKLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER
THE FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.