半日內即將以80KT左右強度登陸路易斯安那州

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 26.9N  91.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 30.1N  89.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
24H  29/1200Z 35.3N  83.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  30/0000Z 39.1N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  30/1200Z 41.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

已通過猶加敦半島，即將撲向路易斯安那州

000
WTNT43 KNHC 280255
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight
with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and
a more symmetric appearance.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently
recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of
around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the
basis of the wind data.

The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors
intensification in the short term.  In addition, microwave data from
a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was
present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and
sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side.  Since the storm
remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast
still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next
6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane.  The new NHC
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the
high side of the guidance.  After landfall, Zeta is likely to become
an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United
States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt).
The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through
Wednesday morning.  A deep cold low (responsible for the southern
Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to
sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the
southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon.  The cyclone
should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the
southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday.  Similar to the
last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly
westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a
consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to
spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where
additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between
tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 23.8N  91.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  28/1200Z 26.0N  91.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  29/0000Z 30.2N  89.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
36H  29/1200Z 35.0N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  30/0000Z 39.5N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NHC18Z升格C1

AL, 28, 2020102618,   , BEST,   0, 193N,  856W,  70,  981, HU

命名Zeta, 已平2005年命名數量

WTNT33 KNHC 250550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

NHC21Z升格TD28L,首報上望65節

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for
the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a
tropical depression.  GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty
clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum
pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The
surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of
the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial
intensity.

The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has
started at least drifting toward the north-northwest.  A shortwave
trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the
cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so,
with only a northwest drift anticipated.   Mid-level ridging should
build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the
depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan
Peninsula or Channel.  The ridge shouldn't last too long, however,
with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the
southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical
cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday.  
The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough
ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences.  At
this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global
models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the
model consensus.

While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low-
and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned.
Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite
low shear and very warm waters.  In a day or two, the depression
will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of
strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the
cyclone is near the Yucatan.  Although the forecast shows the
system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico,
this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and
only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds.  A combination of
cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the
cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this
region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone
moving northward across the Gulf.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western
Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is
also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This
rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 18.7N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 19.0N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 20.1N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 20.9N  85.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  27/0600Z 22.0N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 23.4N  89.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 27.5N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

FWC-N2000Z發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 232000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 81.9W TO 20.8N 82.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 81.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOVING NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 242000Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN