ABIO10
PGTW 201800
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 64.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6N
64.1E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181425Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. INVEST 94A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94A WILL
CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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