將於今日一整天遭到05P完全併吞

目前的預報都已經轉過去05P那邊，04P中心已經孌得無法辨認，將被05P完全吞併成為05P的養份，JTWC發出最後警告

04P受強風切的影響下LLCC完全外露而且從衛星雲圖看起來似乎逐漸被91P吞併，MFS對其發布最後的報告

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 120152 UTC.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 176.2E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH FO AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD01F IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH CENTRE SHEARED TO ABOUT 90NM, YIELDING DT=2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 15.5S 174.5E MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.8S 173.3E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 16.1S 172.9E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 16.4S 172.9E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  THE WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD01F UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

目前強度較強但是對流較少，就看最後機構們判定和91P是誰鹿死誰手了

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 111956 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 177.8E
AT 111800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH FO AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD01F IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.45/0.5 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 15.0S 176.1E MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 15.5S 174.7E MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 16.0S 173.5E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 16.4S 172.5E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD01F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120200 UTC OR EARLIER.

FMS對TD01F發出首報，並認為其將在+48H後獲得升格

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 110916 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
179.0E AT 110600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT BUT SHEARED TO THE EAST WITH DISTANCE
PULSATING BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS THE
SAME IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTWARD FLOW.
SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD01F IS BEING STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHERAED PATTERN WITH 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 13.73S 177.14E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 14.23S 175.24W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.61S 173.91W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 15.23S 173.18W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS IS THE FIRST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TD01F. THE NEXT
TD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 111400 UTC.

JTWC升格04P，首報上望80節(C1)，FMS亦跟隨升格TD

WTPS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 179.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 179.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.8S 178.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 13.6S 175.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 13.8S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 13.8S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 14.1S 172.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 15.3S 172.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 179.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC IN A 102147Z ASCAT-B PASS,
WHICH AT THE TIME SHOWED THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE CONVECTIVE PLUME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE ASCAT-B PASS
MENTIONED EARLIER, WHICH DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS EMINATING FROM A
POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF INVEST 91P OFFSETTING ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 04P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW STR
THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEPTIONALLY
CHALLENGING, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION
WITH INVEST AREA 91P. AFTER TAU 24, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPTURED
BY ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND COCOONED WITHIN AN UPPER-
LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THE NER TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS FUJIWHARA AROUND ONE
ANOTHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AROUND TAU 48 TC 04P WILL ABSORB INVEST
AREA 91P FORMING A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VANUATU AND FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER TAU
36, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS ONE ANOTHER, THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC 04P, WITH DECREASED VWS
AND MUCH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE BINARY INTERACTION. THE EGRR AND
AFUM MODELS INDICATE THAT TC 04P WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY INTERACTION
WITH 91P AND RAPIDLY TRANSIT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A NORTHWARD LOOP, BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. FINALLY THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH, THEN A QUASI-
STATIONARY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAIN CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND INABILITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO EFFECTIVELY MODEL
THE COMPLEXITIES OF BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
NNNN

GALE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 110113 UTC.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.2S 179.7E AT 110000UTC. TD01F MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.   EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF TD01F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 06 TO 18 HOURS.  AREA OF GALES EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.

FMS的展望亦再次提升至高

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 102302 UTC.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 179.7W AT 102100UTC. TD01F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 IR & VIS IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER AND THE ORGANISATION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH INTENSIFICATION IN NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.