WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.5S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 112.2E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27S IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH TC 26S. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED CIRCULATION
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 091744Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK, ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF PGTW/APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
2.5 TO 3.0 (35-45 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO TC 26S WHICH IS CREATING
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF TC 26S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1930 UTC 09/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Odette
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 112.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [138 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 10/0000: 19.0S 112.4E: 035 [065]: 040 [075]: 994
+12: 10/0600: 21.2S 111.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 993
+18: 10/1200: 23.2S 110.6E: 085 [160]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 10/1800: 24.7S 109.3E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 11/0600: : : :
+48: 11/1800: : : :
+60: 12/0600: : : :
+72: 12/1800: : : :
+96: 13/1800: : : :
+120: 14/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Odette has weakened due the shear and has an exposed low level
centre. The location was based on animated IR satellite imagery with good
confidence in the position.
Dvorak analysis gives a DT 2.5 averaged over the last 3 hours from a shear
pattern with latest imagery showing flaring convection less than 0.5 degrees
from the centre location MET/PAT is 2.0 based on a 24h W trend. FT based on the
DT and CI is raised to 2.5. Raw ADT T numbers are 2.7 to 2.8. SATCON at 1417Z
was 51kt [1 min mean]. Intensity set at 40 knots.
Steering of Tropical Cyclone Odette has been rapid to the southeast over the
last 12 hours. This is being significantly impacted by interaction with Tropical
Cyclone Seroja. There is good model consensus that steering will to turn to the
south Saturday morning and then to the south-southwest later on Saturday.
Shear has been unfavourable over Odette, with CIMSS estimates of 30 to 35 knots,
although recent shear estimates have reduced to about 20 knots. Model guidance
indicates that shear over Odette will remain unfavourable and it will be
unlikely for the system to intensify again. This will lead to Odette weakening
below tropical cyclone strength Saturday morning.
In regards to coastal and community impacts, the far northwest corner of WA
between Exmouth and Coral Bay remain a slight risk of experiencing a brief
period of damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and evening of Saturday as
Tropical Cyclone Odette moves to the south, offshore from the west Pilbara.
Significant rainfall that could lead to flash flooding or riverine flooding is
not expected.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0130 UTC.
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0116 UTC 09/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Odette
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 107.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [068 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 09/0600: 14.7S 109.2E: 040 [075]: 045 [085]: 988
+12: 09/1200: 15.7S 110.7E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 989
+18: 09/1800: 17.1S 111.9E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 10/0000: 18.7S 112.4E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 991
+36: 10/1200: 22.3S 111.1E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 990
+48: 11/0000: 25.1S 109.9E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 991
+60: 11/1200: : : :
+72: 12/0000: : : :
+96: 13/0000: : : :
+120: 14/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Odette location was based on animated infrared and past
microwave imagery around 2100UTC. Confidence in the position is good. There has
been increasing confidence of an increase in intensity with the main convective
mass now located over the low level centre, and with banding also evident in
microwave imagery.
Dvorak analysis gives a DT 3.0 from both a curved band and shear pattern. MET is
3.5 adjusted to a PAT of 3.0, FT and CI are also 3.0. CIMSS ADT CI is 3.2 and
NOAA ADT has a CI of 3.3. SATCON was 54 knots [1-minute] at 1812UTC. Final
intensity set to 45 knots [10-minute].
Steering of Tropical Cyclone Odette has been to the east-northeast overnight and
early this morning. This is being significantly impacted by interaction with
Tropical Cyclone Seroja. There is good model consensus that steering over the
remainder of Friday will be to the east and southeast, prior to turning south to
south-southwest during Saturday.
Shear remains moderate to high with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface
temperatures [29-30C]. As TC Odette and TC Seroja continue to interact, Odette
should begin weakening during Saturday as Seroja dominates. An impact to the far
northwest corner of WA coast around Exmouth is possible on Saturday with a short
period of strong to gale force winds and rain even though the system should no
longer be a TC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.
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