Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with
the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible
over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Remnants Of Claudette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021
Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a
northwest to southeast-oriented trough. Therefore Claudette has
dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The
remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly
east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so.
Additional information on the remnants of Claudette can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021
The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern
North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection
continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore
waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the
estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the
coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC.
Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with
this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again.
Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is
steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the
eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina
coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is
possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone
through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day
earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest
global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic
Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to
the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model
consensus.
Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its
closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after
emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the
current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative
scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina
coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.
Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be
considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.
Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm
should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.
The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative
than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory.
Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue.
Key Messages:
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the
afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast,
with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions
of the Southeast.
2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These
winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.
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