JTWC0630Z取消TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 130630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120651ZSEP21//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 120700). AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.4N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 0257Z
METOP-A PASS DEPICTS OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS PARALLELING THE INDIAN
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT TO THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
OVER LAND AT THIS TIME. WINDS OFFSHORE REMAIN IN THE 28-33 KNOT
RANGE, AND SURFACE PRESSURES SUPPORT A 30 KNOT INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY STRONG OFFSHORE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 95B HAS MADE LANDFALL
AND THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT, THAT INVEST 95B HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
FURTHER INLAND WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28-33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. INVEST 95B HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
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IMD編號BOB03

1. BULLETIN Number: 01 (BOB/03/2021)
   
2. TIME OF ISSUE: 2100 HOURS IST DATED: 12.09.2021
   
3. 
   
4. Sub: Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha coast
   
5. Latest satellite & Radar imageries and meteorological observations indicate that a
   
6. Depression has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Odisha coast and lay centred
   
7. at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 12th September, 2021, near latitude 20.3°N and longitude 87.4°E,
   
8. about 80 km east-southeast of Chandbali (Odisha), 70 km east of Paradip (Odisha) and 140
   
9. km south-southeast of Balasore (Odisha).
   
10. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Odisha coast near
    
11. Chandbali by early morning of tomorrow, the 13th September 2021. Thereafter, it is very likely
    
12. to continue to move west-northwestwards across north Odisha, north Chhattisgarh & Madhya
    
13. Pradesh during the subsequent 48 hours.

複製代碼

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 112300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 97.7W TO 15.5N 100.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 97.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5N 97.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1665 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDER AN AREA OF
BROAD DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122300Z.//
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JTWC直接評級Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.0N 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
101328Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
25-30 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  
DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND BURGEONING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
AND HAS A SMALL WINDOW TO INTENSIFY WILL THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET
WEAKENING IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.