Hurricane Nicholas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas,
reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on
this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued. No additional
strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and
gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while
Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.
Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt. The
system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved
inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an
area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to
a crawl near southwestern Louisiana. The official forecast is
slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model
consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the
eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated
major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and
urban areas.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast.
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