(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.1S 168.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 060406Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DRY SLOT AND A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), DRY
AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE DISTURBANCE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET
STREAM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AND POLEWARD OF THE JET FOR 72-
96 HOURS UNTIL IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH. FOR HAZARDS
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH
WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.6S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 040220Z
GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THERE IS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE, CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD , AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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