(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 164.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY
217 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
ALTHOUGH A PARTIAL 030202Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE MISSED MOST
OF THE BROAD SYSTEM, IT DOES SHOW FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE VANUATU
ISLANDS. A 022252Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
VANUATU GENERALLY INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD AND JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW
CALEDONIA. NAVGEM HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. BASED ON THE
EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT, GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FAVORED MODELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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