LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 03N 122E WEST SLOWLY.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.25N 121.07E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), VERY WARM (31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 98W WILL DEVELOP TO WARNING CRITERIA
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD VIETNAM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER
THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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