JMA昨日12Z取消W

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 21N 119E WNW 10 KT.

JTWC於21Z發出FW

熱帶性低氣壓特報
發布時間：10/21 10:35
熱帶性低氣壓1006百帕，今(21)日8時在北緯20.5度，東經124.2度，即在恆春東南東方400公里的海面上，向西移動，時速22公里，今、明(21日、22日)兩天巴士海峽及東沙島海面將有8至9級強陣風且風浪偏大，請在巴士海峽及東沙島海面航行及作業船隻特別注意並隨時注意本局發布之最新氣象資訊。今日至明晨臺南至桃園、東南部(含蘭嶼、綠島)、恆春半島沿海空曠地區及澎湖、金門、馬祖易有8至9級強陣風；今日東南部(含蘭嶼、綠島)及恆春半島沿海有長浪發生的機率。

JTWC首報上望50KT

(2) AT 19OCT22 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 192100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

原本狹長型的，整合的不錯

中心逐漸確立～

JTWC 發布TCFA，稍早ASCAT掃中中心，風場基本閉合，中心附近掃出25kt風旗

WTPN21 PGTW 191430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.9N 130.7E TO 20.1N 123.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.0N 130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 190932Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
191205Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KT
WINDS TO THE EAST AND 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADJACENT NORTHEAST COLD SURGE. ADDITIONALLY, A
191000Z SHIP REPORT 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST REPORTS 24 KT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN BY 10-15KT VWS, ROBUST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.