JTWC 發布TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS
BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH BEGINNING
TO EXHIBIT FORMATIVE WRAPPING. A 06230Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE
LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.