補

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9N
108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ASSESED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY BROAD CONVECTION AND A 081436Z ASCAT METOP-
C IMAGE SHOWCASES 15-20KT WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.