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【東太】90E 接近中太 NHC取消評價

查看數: 12590 評論數: 10 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2012-7-22 08:11

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 ... 於 2012-7-27 14:58 編輯 好像沒人要理他...by小都

HKWCFC網主 發表於 2012-7-25 17:09
jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-25 10:24
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Cancelled
Issued at 24/2100Z
TCFA取消了...不過目前對流還是維 ...

閣下的看法, 我不太認同
看過你的圖片, 90E好像不太有組織
對流尚算旺盛但十分散亂.......
風力更不用談(圖)

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... 發表於 2012-7-25 16:04
其實東太的SST較高區域不大 之前90E就已在此區邊緣 而今漸漸移出此區 SST日降也影響到他的發展 未來機會持續減低...不看好
jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-25 10:24

RE: 【東太】90E TCFA取消 NHC:MEDIUM 40%

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Cancelled
Issued at 24/2100Z
TCFA取消了...不過目前對流還是維持得不錯 看看囉。

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OFMANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED TODAY.  NEVERTHELESS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
機率也降至40% MEDIUM了

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HKWCFC網主 發表於 2012-7-23 16:23
jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-23 09:34
1天...TCFA囉

有何用??
沒有AREA會受影響

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
109.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 110.2W, APPROXIMATELY 705 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTANT CLUSTER OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). A 221241Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A CURVING BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 220421
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS, WITH LIGHTER 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A 220603Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT PASS.
THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.

點評

恩壓,東太大多數的颶風都是純欣賞用的  發表於 2012-7-25 10:25
...
基本上東太的大氣配置還蠻穩定 絕大部分氣旋都是西行(西-西北之間) 而如你所見 在西邊的海域上幾乎沒有島嶼 所以大部分不會有影響陸地  發表於 2012-7-23 18:46
jwpk9899 發表於 2012-7-23 09:34
1天...TCFA囉

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HKWCFC網主 發表於 2012-7-22 21:45
梅姬 發表於 2012-7-22 20:17
有機會形成

對流卻不太旺盛

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點評

上次東太3旋時 剛開始也都這樣 稍微觀察下去  發表於 2012-7-22 23:10
梅姬 發表於 2012-7-22 20:17
有機會形成

點評

注意發文質量,共同維護回帖品質  發表於 2012-7-22 21:03

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