TCFA 現在四周的風切滿強的 幅合幅散都很好 螺旋性也很好〜ec跟gfs都估大多的雲係都會被切到東方....而且強度不強

可望成為南太第一春
路徑上往東南方向前去
應是一個無害颱!

編號不到24hrs已經發出TCFA!預測方向是往西南偏南較無陸地干擾的有利發展:lol

早上所見"底層"雖沒像昨晚那般"酷,"不過前方尚無乾空氣干擾最新風速已增至30kts:P!

直接MEDIUM耶 看好它發展


(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 168.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
190939Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN PERIMETER OF THE LLCC AND
INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WERE BETWEEN 15
TO 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SWATH OF GRADIENT WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
WAS ALSO PRESENT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.