從下圖可見 Oswald的頑強生命力 風力一直能維持在40kts左右 稍後若有機會出海 有良好底層結構 要再恢復一定強度難度不高 還有我真的很好奇 澳洲東部平原有什麼秘密使Oswald維持良好底層結構?:D |
評級又升 到了MEDIUM囉~ THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |