阿隆 發表於 2013-3-9 09:43
雖然已發出TCFA且底層對流爆得還不賴,但~中心緯度若一下掉太快,發展局勢就會一下逆轉喔~

老時說我已經越來越不支持他的發展了
剛剛那個底層圖 雖然有深層對流 但是也很明顯的看出LLCC那裡基本上沒啥深對流...
在看一下風切 中心一帶風切已經有開始增強了 在往南的風切越來越強 可能要再見了...

這隻LOW囉~目前南半球竹見的進入秋天囉 看看未來的發展 會是如何
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 72.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD LLCC. A 051047Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050355Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO GARCIA INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
AND SLP NEAR 1007MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.