基本上NHC定為POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE囉

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ANDDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE AREA OFMINIMUM PRESSURE AND USING CONTINUITY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THEINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 30KNOTS. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS AREOCCURRING PRIMARILY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.I DO NOT HAVE MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARDEMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES.THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTALFLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUSCONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGHLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  08/0900Z 40.9N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH 12H  08/1800Z 44.0N  67.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H  09/0600Z 46.5N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H  09/1800Z 47.5N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H  10/0600Z...ABSORBED$$FORECASTER AVILA

目前中心在佛羅里達上
預估未來依然沿著美東沿岸北上 然後出海

NHC升到50kt了  預估目前為巔峰 未來將減弱 然後慢慢變溫氣
不過也許還會稍微增強也說不定

INIT  06/0900Z 27.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  07/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
48H  08/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0600Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

路徑大致上往美國東岸一帶往北橫過

這雲系長的...

麻友飯 發表於 2013-6-6 12:57
哇噻快速移動掃過美國東岸.....
別又釀災了好吧

最好到 NHC 官網看，才會知道之後大部分路徑都是溫帶氣旋。



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 26.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 27.3N  85.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
48H  08/0000Z 37.5N  75.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0000Z 44.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0000Z 44.5N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 47.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

看這樣子很快就會轉為溫帶氣旋了

哇噻快速移動掃過美國東岸.....:o
別又釀災了好吧

強度表單 清一色40KNOTS

FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
6 Jun, 12:00	9 hrs	27.3 N	85.6 W	40 kts	TS	To 9 hrs	To 9 hrs	N/A
7 Jun, 0:00	21 hrs	29.6 N	83.7 W	40 kts	TS	To 21 hrs	To 21 hrs	N/A
7 Jun, 12:00	33 hrs	33.0 N	80.3 W	40 kts	TS	To 33 hrs	To 33 hrs	N/A
8 Jun, 0:00	45 hrs	37.5 N	75.8 W	40 kts	TS	To 45 hrs	To 45 hrs	N/A
9 Jun, 0:00	69 hrs	44.0 N	61.0 W	40 kts	TS	To 69 hrs	To 69 hrs	N/A
10 Jun, 0:00	93 hrs	44.5 N	42.0 W	40 kts	TS	To 93 hrs	To 93 hrs	N/A
11 Jun, 0:00	117 hrs	47.5 N	20.0 W	40 kts	TS	To 117 hrs	To 117 hrs	N/A

現在評價來到了medium
機率為40%
不過...中心似乎裸的蠻嚴重的(ps:進墨灣了