風場實在是有點鳥
整個偏狹長型 而且風場稍亂
對流也有較之前消散的跡象
對流消消長長
總體架構還不算是很穩定
幅散與幅合也有轉差的趨勢(幅合甚至出現負值)
不過雲系的螺旋性還算不錯期待他有進一步發展
還是值得未來繼續觀察注意

EC看似就是不支持發展囉
大概是與92w有關吧

我在今天早上5點就有預測了，果然被編碼

因為早上上課所以沒有留意到

給一下早上的預測~
http://twtybbs.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3371&page=8#pid59674

環境好.....擾動頻發一波波
93W出身自低緯度 ITCZ 中的東風波動
受惠於北面副高南側的高空東風倒槽TUTT
帶來良好的高空輻散而助長

MEDIUM!!!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162334Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
不知道今日餘下時間有沒有HIGH???

93W幅合普通但幅散相當良好
因此對流源源不絕的爆出
此區的得渦度也有逐漸泛黃甚至發橘的趨勢出現
NCEP也開始有訊號指出將有系統在這附近出現
這個擾動的卻有值得觀察的價值

目前雖然風切稍強和它尚未發展出能抵禦風切的高層反氣旋，但它的中心並無裸露，看來這貨有希望啊! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

11:21 小都補圖