97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.7N.157.7E 簡直就是個小不點 = =
本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-6-26 19:27 編輯 來補上早上的評LOW的時候的報文及圖片PS:圖片依然轉至台風論壇 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A DEFINED BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MSI SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL BUT HAS THUS FAR RETAINED AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. A 260348Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES NO SUBSTANTIVE EVIDENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE 26/00Z CHUUK SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 900 MB WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (SFC TO 350 MB) OVERLAYED WITH WESTERLY FLOW (350 TO 100 MB), CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND VERIFYING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) NEAR 35 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (05-10 KNOTS) WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.2 MB. A 252349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, AND WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS AND POOR DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. |
真不知道JTWC,95那么好,还扯了,那岂不得97,98扯了100次,开始爆发,涡度加深,泛橙,浑圆 |