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donaldfan 發表於 2013-8-30 13:48 發展機會不大了..... JTWC：DOWNGRADED TO LOW (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300041Z 89 GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. |
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本帖最後由 donaldfan 於 2013-8-30 13:52 編輯 過了半天後 似乎93W形態轉差了 LLCC附近的對流比昨天減少 而且環境也不太理想 低空輻合,高空輻散欠佳 周圍風切尚算可以 JMA已將93W氣壓調升至1010HPA了.. |
| 猛一看還覺得它旋起來，有潛力發展，再觀察。 |
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本帖最後由 J18 於 2013-8-28 11:34 編輯 確實康芮旁邊有兩個熱低! |
組圖打開中，請稍候......
