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整體形態變得相當不錯 對流猛爆加上良好的螺旋性 看好它成為今年南太風季的首旋... JTWC也發布TCFA THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 171.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 845 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES WEST OF A NEAR EQAUTORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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雖然形態變得很佳 但是緯度似乎太低了一點 而且還在偏北移動 幾乎快貼近赤道了= = 1.5 S讓我有點傻眼... |
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另外 FMS也把這隻編號為02F哦~ Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 19/2258 UTC 2013 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 02.7S 174.9E AT 192100UTC MOVING WEST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS. CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST THAN SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. |
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