NHC 認為已經消散 |
本帖最後由 shadow16 於 2014-9-3 22:40 編輯 登陸了 降格為TD Tropical Depression DOLLY ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
最大風速 45 節了,可是還未達到巔峰,等會就登陸。 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 23.4N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
NHC 升評至HIGH 60% 不過整體對流仍相當鬆散還有待整合... A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and development of a tropical depression will be possible when the center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. |