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孤獨的莫拉菲 JMA00Z正式判定轉化為溫帶氣旋 温帯低気圧 |
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-8-11 20:32 編輯 JTWC認清現實，重新發報了 直接給45KTS (我不知道怎麼讓他換行@@) [ WTPN32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 32.2N 143.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 143.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 33.0N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 34.1N 149.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 35.2N 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 36.6N 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 39.6N 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 40.6N 169.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 144.4E. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// NNNN |
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搞什麼。 WTPN32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 30.2N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 31.4N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 140.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGFNICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090826Z WINDSAT INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BASED ON DETERIORATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.// NNNN |
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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2015-8-9 21:52 編輯 副熱帶低壓？:L WP, 15, 2015080912, , BEST, 0, 286N, 1406E, 25, 1002, SD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 190, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, MOLAVE, S, TPPN11 PGTW 091256 COR A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) B. 09/1132Z C. 28.65N D. 140.67E E. FIVE/MTSAT F. ST1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. USING THE SUBTROPICAL METHOD, THE SYSTEM YIELDS A 1.5. BULLETIN WAS CORRECTED TO ISSUE A SUBTROPICAL FIX. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 09/0759Z 27.88N 140.65E SSMS 09/0824Z 28.12N 140.72E WIND 09/0826Z 27.98N 140.42E WSAT 09/0856Z 28.38N 140.68E GPMI 09/0936Z 28.35N 140.58E SSMS 09/1139Z 28.65N 140.67E MMHS LEMBKE |
| 這隻颱風現在緯度爬的太高雖然海溫還可以，但強度要在增加已經不太容易了 |
| :o這隻結構不太好環境也不太好一直承現比較鬆散的狀態強度方面是乎暫時沒有給予很高評價跟期望，反倒是路徑方面目前預測會一直跑到日本東方以北的海域預一般而言這種走法後期應該會轉化為溫帶氣旋吧。 |
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中央氣象局氣象報告 １０４年８月７日２３時０分發布 ８月７日２０時天氣概況： 一、海上陸上颱風警報：請參照民國１０４年編號第１３ 號颱風警報之最新狀態。 二、原位於關島北方海面的熱帶性低氣壓已於７日２０時 發展為輕度颱風，編號第１５１４號（國際命名ＭＯＬＡＶＥ ，中文譯名：莫拉菲），中心氣壓９９８百帕，７日２０時的 中心位置在北緯２３．９度，東經１４６．２度，即在關島北 方１１９０公里之海面上（臺北東方２５００公里之海面上） ，以每小時２０公里速度，向西北進行，中心附近最大風速每 秒１８公尺（即每小時６５公里），相當於８級風，瞬間最大 陣風每秒２５公尺（即每小時９０公里），相當於１０級風， ７級風暴風半徑１００公里，預測８日２０時的中心位置在北 緯２７．１度，東經１４３．１度，即在東京南南東方１０２ ０公里之海面上（臺北東方２１８０公里之海面上）。 目前確定朝日本南方海面接近中，對台灣沒有影響，正當大家在注意蘇迪勒颱風時，莫拉菲悄悄地誕生了 |
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-8-7 21:24 編輯 JMA命名莫拉菲! 台風第14号 (モラヴェ) |
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