烏利亞的巔峰美圖

最後給出了125kts  , 暫時的風王. 估計維持不久(隔壁溫士頓可能超越)

底層還可以 , 不過OHC比較高區域.已經脫離..

環境開始轉差.



老J給了115kt而已 . 感覺有點低了.  Meteo-7分辨太差. 沒辦法..

高層風眼已經清空
MFR 12Z評價105節，強烈熱帶氣旋級別達成

** WTIO20 FMEE 171209 RRA ***
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/02/2016
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/02/2016 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (URIAH)  935 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 80.1 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER, AND UP TO 250
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

** WTIO20 FMEE 171209 RRB ***
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2016/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.3 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=

JTWC則評價115節，也攻上C4。

SH, 13, 2016021712,   , BEST,   0, 186S,  801E, 115,  937, TY,  34, NEQ,  120,  225,  230,   80, 1004,  210,  15,   0,  20,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,      URIAH, D,

南太的溫士頓上望很高,但疑似受到風切20kt影響. 發展目前不順

南印的Uriah發展正走入正規




目前升到Cat.3
高層開眼 , 結構整齊後. 強度還有上望Cat.4

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20152016
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (URIAH)

2.A POSITION 2016/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 81.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 410 SW: 440 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 330 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2016/02/18 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/02/21 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2016/02/22 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

THE LAST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE PREMISE OF AN ELONGATED EYE
PATTERN. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS CONFIMED BY THE 2045Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS NOW A CLOSED EYE.

TODAY URIAH'S TRACK SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BEND SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY WITH THE REBUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EAST. FRIDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN BECAUSE OF THE BUILDING OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW LARGE
SPREAD FROM FRIDAY EVENING, SUGGESTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP
MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AND CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.

ON THIS TRACK, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ADDITIONNALY, THE BUILDING OF A NEW OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ON THE POLAR SIDE ALONG WITH GOOD OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN NEAR
80E, ARE LIKELY TO HELP THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY. FROM
THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
NORTH-WESTERLY VWS, AND START THE WEAKENING, ACCENTUATED BY THE
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 23-24S. MOREOVER, THE SLOW
MOTION FORECAST FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOL THE
UNDERLYING SST AND INCREASE THE WEAKENING TREND.=

底層眼已經弄完了....
JTWC直接評價105節

SH, 13, 2016021700,   , BEST,   0, 179S,  816E, 105,  944, TY,  34, NEQ,  100,  150,  190,  130, 1005,  210,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,      URIAH, D,

JTWC評價75節，C1達成，巔峰上望95節。




底層只剩下西側有待改善

MFR從18Z開始發報，巔峰上望強烈熱帶氣旋

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20152016
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (URIAH)

2.A POSITION 2016/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 88.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 430 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 310 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/15 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/02/16 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/02/16 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/02/17 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/02/17 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+.

DURING THE LAST HOURS DEEP CONVECTION IS ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO A
BROKEN CURVED BAND WRAPPING 0.9 AROUND THE CENTRE, AS SEEN ON THE
1858Z VAPOR GCOM DATA AND LAST SATELLITE IR IMAGERY. ON THE VERY LAST
IMAGERY, THIS BAND SEEMS TO BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LONGER SIZE.

DURING THE NEXT DAYS THE MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT PRESENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE OFFSET BY A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY.

URIAH IS FORECAST TO GO ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. UP TO
WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AS
THE RIDGE REBUILD IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE DECREASE OF
THE OCH SOUTH OF 23S.
NWP AVAILABLE MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.=

這底層看來有朝向大爛眼發展的趨勢....