麻煩修改標題，沒進入西經120度以東海域就不能稱作進入東南太平洋，這是世界氣象組織的規範。

JTWC發布TCFA

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTER [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.7S 156.2W
AT 240900UTC. TD11F MOVING SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
IR/EIR GOES IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN RADIAL EXTENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FMS編號11F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 231031 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTER [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 156.6W
AT 230900UTC. TD11F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED IR/EIR MTSAT
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF SUPPOSED LLCC
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

06Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0S 166.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS JUST RECENTLY FORMED. A RECENT 211955Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SHOWING A FEW 30
KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING IN PHASE WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, CREATING AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.