king111807

FMS編號07F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 262356 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER 1002HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S
167.9E AT 270000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST AT
05 KNOTS.

SMALL BLOB OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATING CENTER. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 168.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT INVEST 90P
COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A 262149Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS
PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10KTS) WITH DECENT
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格18P

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 173.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 173.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 22.5S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 25.0S 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 26.6S 170.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 173.6E.
28JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
272 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
//
NNNN