簽到天數: 3284 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-9-15 15:19
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-28 11:52 編輯
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1N 143.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW. A
142227Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
143.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW. A 142227Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW
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