J18

目前看起來高壓勢力有增強的現象
此時準13W未來會先朝著高壓外圍移動
幾天後旺盛的西風槽會打擊高壓勢力
而13W的路徑便開始關鍵了
如果他在巴士海峽或台灣西南海域 影響台灣機率大增
相對地若在台灣東南海域 很容易成為過門而不入的颱風!

1722133

成颱機會很大!
ABPW10 PGTW 250230MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250130Z-250600ZAUG2013//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZAUG2013//REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250121ZAUG2013//NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:      (1) AT 250000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (PEWA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 166.7E, APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTHWARD OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 250130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH AND ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1).//NNNN

阿隆

wesley23

大部份預測是往台灣東方海面前進



但cwb的預測圖是通過台灣




到底會怎麼跑咧???

我不懂氣象

ktf 發表於 2013-8-25 01:40
非常明顯的LLCC,數值反應有快有慢
副高情況,原先預測看衰發展是副高強勢讓他發展不起來
不過現在又不同

JTWC
十分鐘前(09:15左右)
已發佈TCFA

ktf

非常明顯的LLCC,數值反應有快有慢
副高情況,原先預測看衰發展是副高強勢讓他發展不起來
不過現在又不同

副高預測的也不是多強勢,之後有洋中槽切斷
導引低尾西伸,直接讓91W緩慢北北西移
系統明顯發展起來就要留意了

月底的冷空氣一直報的頗明顯,明顯的槽東移
可以逼退副高,其實低尾西伸就表示弱勢了
即使沒靠近也可能將地面北風南扯(看強度如何)

繼續看下去

ben811018

未來高壓的位置很重要～
目前各數值預報的差異不大～
認為北方西風槽的南壓與東移將促使高壓勢力東退且減弱～
進而導引９１往北移動～趨向台灣東部海域～

預計下週北方高壓會帶點北風下來～
如果又配合９１在台灣東部海域活動帶來水汽～
那麼台灣這一帶要注意南北氣流交會下的強降雨發生～

九月的天氣系統變化莫測～
實際上會怎樣還很難說～

麻友飯

martin191919 發表於 2013-8-24 22:08
MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 13 ...

結構轉好大概與風切降低有關吧〜〜:lol