簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2017-8-26 14:43
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JTWC評級MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 252355Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC
WRAPPING AROUND TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252311Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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