簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2016-4-24 11:57
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MFR 00Z直接降格TD判死，並發布最終報。
WTIO30 FMEE 240034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/8/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 53.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2016/04/25 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2016/04/25 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2016/04/26 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2016/04/26 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5, CI=2.0
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 23/18.20Z CONFIRM THIS ANALYSIS AND THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
EX-FANTALA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD, NORTH OF THE
LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE BELT, AND IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACCORDING TO THE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY THE
SURROUDING DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSCM LA REUNION FOR THIS
SYSTEM.=
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